Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:36 pm at Kansas City); 12 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: AA 4165 at 19:22 is the safest bet, 43% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 52–60%.

Safest bet today AA 4165 MCI 19:22 → DFW 21:15 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 3030 MCI 17:19 → DFW 19:03 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Against a calm day 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 44% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 19:22	DFW 21:15	43%	12%	1.3%	85%worse than usual
AA 2047 American Flight history →	MCI 19:53	DFW 21:41	52%	17%	1.0%	62%worse than usual
AA 922 American Flight history →	MCI 18:19	DFW 20:16	56%	18%	1.2%	62%worse than usual
AA 3030 American Flight history →	MCI 17:19	DFW 19:03	60%	17%	1.3%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON