Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:34 pm at Kansas City); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2555 at 15:40, 28%.

Safest bet today WN 2555 MCI 15:40 → HOU 17:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 371 MCI 19:46 → HOU 21:58 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2555 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:40	HOU 17:50	28%	6%	0.3%	84%worse than usual
WN 2556 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 19:45	HOU 21:50	35%	6%	0.3%	57%
WN 371 Southwest	MCI 19:46	HOU 21:58	35%	6%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON