Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 63%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4702 at 16:00, 60%.

Safest bet today WN 4702 MCO 16:00 → BHM 16:45 · 60% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4990 MCO 20:56 → BHM 21:40 · 69% chance 15+ min late

Weather 63% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4702 Southwest	MCO 16:00	BHM 16:45	60%	17%	0.6%	no record
WN 3043 Southwest	MCO 16:06	BHM 16:50	60%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 1629 Southwest	MCO 22:00	BHM 22:40	63%	25%	0.7%	no record
WN 4990 Southwest	MCO 20:56	BHM 21:40	69%	22%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON