Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 65%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: DL 888 at 19:59, 60%.

Safest bet today DL 888 MCO 19:59 → BOS 23:20 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time Riskiest B6 1152 MCO 15:49 → BOS 19:00 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Weather 65% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 888 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:59	BOS 23:20	60%	25%	0.9%	58%worse than usual
B6 2052 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:21	BOS 17:26	62%	30%	1.4%	55%worse than usual
DL 1474 Delta	MCO 19:55	BOS 22:51	63%	29%	0.9%	no record
B6 1952 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 20:55	BOS 00:05	69%	34%	1.4%	58%worse than usual
B6 1152 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:49	BOS 19:00	69%	32%	1.4%	59%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON