Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60%, against 47% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2707 at 21:43, 60%.

Safest bet today WN 2707 MCO 21:43 → DAL 23:30 · 60% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3936 MCO 19:50 → DAL 21:37 · 61% chance 15+ min late

Weather 60% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2707 Southwest	MCO 21:43	DAL 23:30	60%	30%	0.5%	no record
WN 1973 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:50	DAL 23:30	60%	30%	0.5%	56%worse than usual
WN 1347 Southwest	MCO 20:10	DAL 21:55	60%	25%	0.6%	no record
WN 3936 Southwest	MCO 19:50	DAL 21:37	61%	23%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON