Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2587 at 13:35, 46%.

Safest bet today WN 2587 MCO 13:35 → DCA 15:50 · 46% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2424 MCO 17:34 → DCA 19:59 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 60% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2587 Southwest	MCO 13:35	DCA 15:50	46%	15%	0.5%	no record
AA 1071 American	MCO 14:22	DCA 16:58	52%	25%	0.8%	no record
WN 2627 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:30	DCA 22:05	58%	41%	0.6%	40%
WN 2710 Southwest	MCO 20:36	DCA 22:50	58%	34%	0.6%	no record
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:59	58%	30%	0.7%	59%worse than usual
AA 2062 American Flight history →	MCO 14:37	DCA 16:59	58%	27%	0.8%	72%worse than usual
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	60%	34%	1.0%	70%worse than usual
AA 958 American Flight history →	MCO 21:19	DCA 23:37	65%	38%	0.9%	58%worse than usual
AA 1614 American	MCO 17:13	DCA 19:33	70%	41%	1.1%	no record
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	75%	52%	1.3%	55%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON