Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60%, against 43% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2124 at 11:16, 37%.

Safest bet today AA 2124 MCO 11:16 → DFW 13:07 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 1481 MCO 18:32 → DFW 20:26 · 70% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Weather 60% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 43% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2124 American Flight history →	MCO 11:16	DFW 13:07	37%	7%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
AA 2136 American Flight history →	MCO 13:03	DFW 15:00	52%	16%	1.3%	59%worse than usual
AA 2081 American Flight history →	MCO 14:24	DFW 16:35	60%	24%	1.4%	63%worse than usual
AA 2143 American Flight history →	MCO 15:45	DFW 17:47	60%	27%	1.4%	46%
AA 1737 American Flight history →	MCO 15:46	DFW 17:45	60%	22%	1.4%	70%worse than usual
AA 1606 American	MCO 14:44	DFW 16:39	60%	20%	1.4%	no record
AA 2097 American Flight history →	MCO 16:47	DFW 18:50	62%	29%	1.1%	40%
AA 1288 American Flight history →	MCO 17:47	DFW 19:58	62%	22%	1.1%	57%worse than usual
AA 2117 American Flight history →	MCO 19:37	DFW 21:36	62%	26%	1.4%	60%worse than usual
AA 1937 American	MCO 20:04	DFW 22:01	62%	25%	1.4%	no record
AA 2457 American	MCO 19:12	DFW 21:13	62%	24%	1.4%	no record
AA 2385 American Flight history →	MCO 18:26	DFW 20:30	63%	24%	1.2%	30%
AA 3118 American	MCO 17:36	DFW 19:40	64%	24%	1.1%	no record
F9 1481 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:32	DFW 20:26	70%	43%	3.6%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON