Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 71%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2645 at 22:25, 67%.

Safest bet today WN 2645 MCO 22:25 → HOU 23:55 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time Riskiest WN 4493 MCO 20:15 → HOU 21:45 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Weather 71% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2645 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:25	HOU 23:55	67%	30%	1.0%	52%worse than usual
WN 2724 Southwest	MCO 22:10	HOU 23:37	67%	30%	1.0%	no record
WN 5067 Southwest	MCO 19:05	HOU 20:30	72%	25%	0.8%	no record
WN 1503 Southwest	MCO 19:55	HOU 21:22	75%	30%	1.0%	no record
WN 4493 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:15	HOU 21:45	75%	32%	1.1%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON