Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: UA 413 at 16:45, 42%.

Safest bet today UA 413 MCO 16:45 → IAD 19:08 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest UA 390 MCO 18:17 → IAD 20:45 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 413 United Flight history →	MCO 16:45	IAD 19:08	42%	15%	0.5%	73%worse than usual
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	46%	23%	0.6%	67%worse than usual
UA 390 United	MCO 18:17	IAD 20:45	47%	20%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON