Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 65%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1668 at 19:52, 53%.

Safest bet today DL 1668 MCO 19:52 → JFK 22:59 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time Riskiest B6 2984 MCO 16:57 → JFK 19:36 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Weather 65% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1668 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:52	JFK 22:59	53%	34%	1.3%	45%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	56%	28%	1.3%	74%worse than usual
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:57	JFK 22:32	58%	34%	1.3%	56%worse than usual
B6 1184 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:51	JFK 21:30	72%	35%	2.3%	91%worse than usual
B6 1284 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:37	JFK 21:29	75%	41%	2.4%	55%worse than usual
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:57	JFK 19:36	75%	44%	2.7%	56%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON