Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: WN 693 at 22:16, 51%.

Safest bet today WN 693 MCO 22:16 → MDW 00:12 · 51% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2657 MCO 17:30 → MDW 19:30 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Weather 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 693 Southwest	MCO 22:16	MDW 00:12	51%	24%	0.9%	no record
WN 2660 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:55	MDW 20:50	53%	19%	0.6%	38%
WN 4762 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:00	MDW 23:50	55%	30%	0.9%	50%
WN 3651 Southwest	MCO 19:01	MDW 20:59	56%	20%	0.6%	no record
WN 2657 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:30	MDW 19:30	60%	24%	0.6%	52%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON