Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 64%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2481 at 14:25, 55%.

Safest bet today UA 2481 MCO 14:25 → ORD 16:43 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 2089 MCO 16:41 → ORD 18:59 · 74% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Weather 64% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	55%	22%	0.4%	72%worse than usual
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	58%	30%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
F9 2791 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:59	ORD 23:10	61%	36%	1.5%	58%worse than usual
F9 1349 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:45	ORD 22:57	62%	36%	1.5%	76%worse than usual
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	64%	28%	0.4%	58%worse than usual
AA 2066 American Flight history →	MCO 15:11	ORD 17:29	65%	32%	0.6%	51%worse than usual
UA 2845 United	MCO 18:02	ORD 20:10	66%	30%	0.6%	no record
AA 3031 American Flight history →	MCO 15:33	ORD 17:40	67%	31%	0.6%	64%worse than usual
AA 1782 American Flight history →	MCO 16:58	ORD 19:14	68%	34%	0.7%	42%
AA 2089 American Flight history →	MCO 16:41	ORD 18:59	74%	38%	0.7%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON