Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 63%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: AS 309 at 19:34, 60%.

Safest bet today AS 309 MCO 19:34 → SEA 22:45 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AS 419 MCO 18:41 → SEA 21:33 · 66% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Weather 63% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 309 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:34	SEA 22:45	60%	24%	0.9%	64%worse than usual
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:45	SEA 22:05	62%	27%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
AS 419 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 18:41	SEA 21:33	66%	27%	0.8%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON