Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 31–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2619 MDW 15:00 → BNA 16:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 499 MDW 18:51 → BNA 20:23 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2619 Southwest	MDW 15:00	BNA 16:30	31%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 297 Southwest	MDW 22:02	BNA 23:33	36%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 1073 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:35	BNA 20:05	37%	7%	0.1%	50%
WN 4091 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:40	BNA 23:10	38%	5%	0.2%	65%
WN 3614 Southwest	MDW 16:40	BNA 18:10	39%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 716 Southwest	MDW 17:01	BNA 18:33	40%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 499 Southwest	MDW 18:51	BNA 20:23	40%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON