Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:49 pm at Chicago); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 41% on a calm day. Safest: F9 1887 at 21:27, 55%.

Nonstops today


F9 1887 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 21:27	DFW 23:59	55%	17%	1.4%	73%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	7h 03m	93%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON