Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:29 pm at Chicago)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1951 at 15:30, 33%.

Nonstops today


WN 1951 Southwest	MDW 15:30	GEG 17:15	33%	6%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 15:25 → DEN 17:00WN 2769	3h 50m Denver	DEN 20:50 → GEG 22:18WN 1592	8h 53m	98%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → GEG 23:06DL 2418	6h 00m	64%	41%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:30 → PHX 20:10WN 2862	51m Phoenix	PHX 21:01 → GEG 23:44WN 2080	7h 14m	44%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON