Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:21 pm at Chicago)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39% (calm day: 22%). Best bet: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:49, 64% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	7h 46m	92%	64%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	6h 47m	93%	47%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 16:51 → IAH 18:52DL 1529	5h 26m	81%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON