Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 49–58% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 575 MDW 19:26 → LGA 22:34 · 49% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2762 MDW 17:40 → LGA 20:45 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 51% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 575 Southwest	MDW 19:26	LGA 22:34	49%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4120 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:40	LGA 22:55	49%	10%	0.7%	27%
WN 661 Southwest	MDW 17:46	LGA 20:54	58%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2762 Southwest	MDW 17:40	LGA 20:45	58%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON