Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:30 pm at Chicago); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 13:25, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 13:25 → DEN 15:00WN 2768	3h 35m Denver	DEN 18:35 → LGB 20:10WN 1037	8h 45m	96%	61%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:10 → LAS 18:00WN 2795	2h 06m Las Vegas	LAS 20:06 → LGB 21:20WN 3394	7h 10m	95%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 15:25 → DEN 17:00WN 2769	1h 16m Denver	DEN 18:16 → LGB 19:44WN 1657	6h 19m	74%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON