Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2818 at 16:55, 37%.

Safest bet today WN 2818 MDW 16:55 → MCO 20:40 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest WN 1603 MDW 18:40 → MCO 22:15 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Weather 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2818 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:55	MCO 20:40	37%	12%	0.9%	59%
WN 2821 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:20	MCO 23:55	39%	12%	0.8%	47%
WN 1871 Southwest	MDW 17:26	MCO 21:02	42%	14%	1.0%	no record
WN 3032 Southwest	MDW 19:02	MCO 22:38	46%	14%	0.8%	no record
WN 1603 Southwest	MDW 18:40	MCO 22:15	47%	14%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON