Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3651 at 21:25, 58%.

Safest bet today WN 3651 MDW 21:25 → MSP 22:56 · 58% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4085 MDW 21:30 → MSP 23:00 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Weather 58% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3651 Southwest	MDW 21:25	MSP 22:56	58%	24%	0.2%	no record
WN 4085 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:30	MSP 23:00	58%	24%	0.3%	56%worse than usual
DL 4713 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 19:06	MSP 20:51	38%	25%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON