Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:28 pm at Chicago); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2658 at 17:30, 35%.

Nonstops today


WN 2658 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:30	PVD 20:50	35%	7%	0.4%	50%
WN 4574 Southwest	MDW 19:11	PVD 22:29	44%	9%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:55 → MCO 20:40WN 2818	1h 11m Orlando	MCO 21:51 → PVD 00:44 +1WN 866	6h 49m	73%	32%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:35 → BNA 20:05WN 1073	1h 01m Nashville	BNA 21:06 → PVD 00:31 +1WN 779	4h 56m	56%	27%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064	5h 47m	64%	23%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON