Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3770 MFR 17:24 → SEA 18:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 127 MFR 17:32 → SEA 19:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3770 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 17:24	SEA 18:55	24%	10%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
OO 127 SkyWest	MFR 17:32	SEA 19:03	25%	11%	0.6%	no record
AS 2040 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 19:50	SEA 21:12	16%	6%	2.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON