Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:35 pm at Miami); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 42–48% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1908 Southwest	MIA 15:00	DAL 16:57	42%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 2880 Southwest	MIA 17:35	DAL 19:35	48%	15%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MIA 15:15 → MDW 17:25WN 2930	3h 50m Chicago	MDW 21:15 → DAL 23:40WN 2893	9h 25m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 25m	93%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MIA 15:15 → MDW 17:25WN 2930	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 18:35 → DAL 21:00WN 1410	6h 45m	61%	43%
Southwest Details →	MIA 16:15 → DEN 18:35WN 2926	1h 34m Denver	DEN 20:09 → DAL 23:10WN 1579	7h 55m	65%	31%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 25m	43%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON