Today: AA 944 at 21:51 is the safest bet, 36% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–50%.

Safest bet today AA 944 MIA 21:51 → JFK 00:59 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AA 2124 MIA 16:30 → JFK 19:35 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 944 American Flight history →	MIA 21:51	JFK 00:59	36%	16%	1.0%	64%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:59	JFK 23:21	38%	19%	0.5%	53%
AA 1357 American Flight history →	MIA 19:50	JFK 23:01	40%	16%	0.8%	56%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:17	JFK 18:50	45%	20%	0.6%	73%worse than usual
AA 1202 American Flight history →	MIA 16:03	JFK 19:15	46%	19%	1.2%	55%
DL 1794 Delta	MIA 19:49	JFK 22:44	46%	19%	0.5%	no record
AA 1922 American Flight history →	MIA 18:33	JFK 21:45	48%	19%	0.8%	61%
AA 2600 American	MIA 18:50	JFK 21:50	48%	19%	0.8%	no record
AA 2124 American	MIA 16:30	JFK 19:35	50%	22%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON