tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:47 am at Miami)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3714 Southwest MIA 14:35 MDW 16:49 29% 9% 0.2% no record
WN 2930 Southwest Flight history → MIA 15:15 MDW 17:25 31% 9% 0.2% 54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MIA 15:10 → CMH 17:50WN 2925 2h 25m Columbus CMH 20:15 → MDW 20:40WN 1271 6h 30m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 13:20 → MCI 15:30WN 4925 2h 15m Kansas City MCI 17:45 → MDW 19:10WN 2572 6h 50m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 7h 15m 92% 62%
FrontierDetails → MIA 17:28 → ATL 20:00F9 4405 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MDW 00:06 +1F9 2291 7h 38m 87% 49%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 1h 14m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 5h 51m 81% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MIA 16:15 → DEN 18:35WN 2926 1h 47m Denver DEN 20:22 → MDW 23:46WN 3047 8h 31m 72% 44%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 5h 10m 63% 42%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 5h 15m 46% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON