Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 pm at Miami); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 458 at 21:22, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 458 American Flight history →	MIA 21:22	MSP 00:09	35%	10%	0.4%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 17:03 → ORD 19:42AA 3304	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	8h 19m	93%	76%
American Details →	MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 22:46 → MSP 00:41 +1AA 1048	8h 41m	94%	69%
American Details →	MIA 17:23 → CLT 19:45AA 400	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 22:02 → MSP 23:41AA 2176	7h 18m	94%	56%
American Details →	MIA 16:54 → DFW 19:14AA 3259	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	8h 03m	96%	45%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 39m	94%	34%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 17:40 → ORD 20:21UA 2311	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	6h 30m	66%	48%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:56DL 1323	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	5h 47m	63%	19%
American Details →	MIA 16:54 → DFW 19:14AA 3259	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → MSP 22:26AA 2978	6h 32m	37%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON