Today: AA 2323 at 21:50 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–50%.

Safest bet today AA 2323 MIA 21:50 → ORD 00:26 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest UA 2311 MIA 17:40 → ORD 20:21 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2323 American Flight history →	MIA 21:50	ORD 00:26	26%	8%	0.4%	63%
AA 1881 American Flight history →	MIA 20:54	ORD 23:30	28%	10%	0.3%	53%
AA 483 American Flight history →	MIA 21:18	ORD 23:31	29%	8%	0.3%	79%
AA 2634 American Flight history →	MIA 22:12	ORD 00:36	29%	8%	0.4%	70%
AA 2247 American Flight history →	MIA 14:37	ORD 17:18	38%	9%	0.2%	67%
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MIA 18:52	ORD 21:19	42%	12%	0.2%	62%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	42%	10%	0.2%	60%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 17:02	ORD 19:42	45%	11%	0.2%	49%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	47%	9%	0.2%	59%
UA 2311 United Flight history →	MIA 17:40	ORD 20:21	50%	11%	0.2%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON