Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 40–46% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2347 MIA 20:50 → SFO 23:55 · 40% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 590 MIA 16:41 → SFO 19:52 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 46% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2347 American	MIA 20:50	SFO 23:55	40%	14%	0.3%	no record
AA 2426 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SFO 23:33	40%	14%	0.3%	56%
UA 2810 United Flight history →	MIA 16:45	SFO 20:09	42%	19%	0.3%	22%
AA 2799 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	SFO 22:34	44%	17%	0.3%	33%
AA 2035 American Flight history →	MIA 17:15	SFO 20:20	45%	15%	0.4%	53%
AA 590 American	MIA 16:41	SFO 19:52	46%	16%	0.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 15:23 → DFW 17:36AA 1824	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10AA 1430	8h 47m	87%	34%
American Details →	MIA 16:53 → DFW 19:14AA 3259	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:44 → SFO 22:28AA 2228	8h 35m	82%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON