Today: AA 5637 at 17:22 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–38%.

Safest bet today AA 5637 MKE 17:22 → DCA 20:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest WN 2941 MKE 18:00 → DCA 20:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5637 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 17:22	DCA 20:45	26%	12%	0.7%	63%
WN 3048 Southwest	MKE 17:06	DCA 20:12	35%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 2941 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 18:00	DCA 20:55	38%	8%	0.2%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON