Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:49 pm at Minneapolis); 18 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1705 at 22:15, 25%.

Safest bet today DL 1705 MSP 22:15 → DEN 23:27 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest WN 3063 MSP 19:00 → DEN 20:10 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 18 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1705 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:15	DEN 23:27	25%	6%	0.1%	71%
UA 1704 United	MSP 17:07	DEN 18:34	30%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 2272 United Flight history →	MSP 16:51	DEN 18:17	35%	7%	0.2%	65%
UA 467 United Flight history →	MSP 18:23	DEN 19:45	38%	7%	0.2%	57%
DL 2931 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	DEN 19:56	39%	8%	0.1%	66%
F9 1149 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 22:15	DEN 23:32	42%	11%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
UA 1906 United	MSP 18:31	DEN 19:39	42%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 3105 Southwest	MSP 15:46	DEN 16:51	46%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 3076 Southwest	MSP 19:02	DEN 20:07	49%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 3063 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 19:00	DEN 20:10	49%	7%	0.1%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON