Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:08 pm at Minneapolis); 12 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2967 MSP 19:50 → DFW 22:21 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 2148 MSP 19:15 → DFW 21:50 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2967 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:50	DFW 22:21	28%	8%	0.6%	76%
AA 2406 American Flight history →	MSP 19:10	DFW 21:43	35%	7%	1.2%	64%
AA 2148 American Flight history →	MSP 19:15	DFW 21:50	36%	8%	1.1%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON