Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:58 am at Minneapolis); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2846 at 20:15, 28%.

Safest bet today DL 2846 MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest DL 2866 MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2846 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	EWR 23:56	28%	10%	0.5%	73%
UA 657 United Flight history →	MSP 19:42	EWR 23:26	35%	15%	0.5%	65%
UA 1818 United	MSP 19:56	EWR 23:30	36%	15%	0.4%	no record
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:10	EWR 17:53	46%	11%	0.5%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON