Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:35 pm at Minneapolis); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 16:15, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	1h 45m Detroit	DTW 20:44 → FLL 23:42DL 2296	6h 27m	92%	60%
American Details →	MSP 17:48 → CLT 21:16AA 2140	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 22:37 → FLL 00:47 +1AA 321	5h 59m	78%	53%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 21:28 → FLL 23:24DL 1107	6h 26m	89%	41%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	6h 21m	93%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MSP 16:15 → BNA 18:15WN 2962	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 19:20 → FLL 22:41WN 4732	5h 26m	66%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON