Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:56 pm at Minneapolis); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 674 at 21:40, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 674 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:40	IND 00:16	28%	6%	0.1%	78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 18:02 → ORD 20:10AA 4465 · flown by Republic	2h 19m Chicago	ORD 22:29 → IND 00:50 +1AA 4363 · flown by Republic	5h 48m	93%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSP 18:02 → ORD 20:10AA 4465 · flown by Republic	47m Chicago	ORD 20:57 → IND 23:12AA 4740 · flown by Republic	4h 10m	71%	56%
United Details →	MSP 19:04 → ORD 20:38UA 1237	47m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → IND 23:44UA 3660 · flown by Republic	3h 40m	33%	26%
Southwest Details →	MSP 19:00 → MDW 20:30WN 4115	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 21:30 → IND 23:36WN 1931	3h 36m	52%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON