Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:45 am at Minneapolis); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2661 at 12:54, 31%.

Safest bet today DL 2661 MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2692 MSP 20:29 → JFK 00:02 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2661 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:54	JFK 17:00	31%	5%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
DL 2692 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:29	JFK 00:02	35%	8%	0.2%	78%worse than usual
DL 5244 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 18:10	JFK 22:09	48%	20%	11.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON