Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Minneapolis); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2187 at 18:53, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2187 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:53	MIA 23:35	25%	5%	0.2%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	10h 27m	98%	80%
American Details →	MSP 16:11 → ORD 17:59AA 4000 · flown by Envoy	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 19:11 → MIA 23:31AA 1159	6h 20m	84%	61%
American Details →	MSP 17:47 → CLT 21:29AA 2151	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 22:48 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068	6h 01m	85%	57%
American Details →	MSP 15:55 → PHL 19:47AA 3294	2h 08m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	7h 57m	85%	54%
American Details →	MSP 17:48 → CLT 21:16AA 2140	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 +1AA 1596	5h 58m	78%	54%
Southwest Details →	MSP 16:15 → BNA 18:15WN 2962	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 19:45 → MIA 23:06WN 4779	5h 51m	77%	40%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 41m	91%	36%
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 37m	94%	34%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	8h 20m	25%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON