Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:05 pm at Minneapolis); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38% (calm day: 22%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 18:13, 43% on time.

Nonstops today


DL 2107 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:28	SNA 20:20	40%	8%	0.6%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	58m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304	5h 47m	70%	43%
United Details →	MSP 18:23 → DEN 19:45UA 467	47m Denver	DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725	5h 38m	48%	25%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON