Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:14 pm at New Orleans); 12 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 19:38, is the safest bet: 9% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 20% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSY 19:38 → DFW 21:17AA 2291	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193	5h 12m	20%	9%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON