Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:48 pm at Oakland)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 17:05 → LAS 18:44WN 2374	3h 26m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 2208	9h 40m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 19:00 → PHX 21:00WN 3070	1h 30m Phoenix	PHX 22:30 → BWI 05:48 +1WN 3367	7h 48m	75%	42%
Southwest Details →	OAK 19:15 → DEN 22:40WN 2418	1h 10m Denver	DEN 23:50 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 1501	7h 00m	53%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON