Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:23 am at Oakland); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 4046 at 15:15, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4046 Southwest	OAK 15:15	DAL 20:40	38%	7%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 13:40 → PHX 15:40WN 878	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 17:45 → DAL 22:10WN 2841	6h 30m	98%	57%
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:05 → DEN 16:30WN 3043	2h 45m Denver	DEN 19:15 → DAL 22:15WN 553	7h 10m	100%	52%
Southwest Details →	OAK 11:25 → SAN 12:55WN 3075	3h 14m San Diego	SAN 16:09 → DAL 21:11WN 2026	7h 46m	100%	44%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3044	2h 05m Denver	DEN 20:25 → DAL 23:30WN 1523	6h 35m	92%	44%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:01 → SAN 15:43WN 3669	2h 13m San Diego	SAN 17:56 → DAL 22:58WN 3560	6h 57m	90%	41%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:50 → SAN 16:20WN 3076	1h 30m San Diego	SAN 17:50 → DAL 22:55WN 3492	6h 05m	86%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3044	50m Denver	DEN 19:10 → DAL 22:09WN 1578	5h 14m	29%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON