Today: WN 3176 at 12:13 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet today WN 3176 OAK 12:13 → LGB 13:42 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3057 OAK 18:55 → LGB 20:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3176 Southwest	OAK 12:13	LGB 13:42	16%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1409 Southwest	OAK 14:41	LGB 16:10	25%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3013 Southwest	OAK 16:35	LGB 18:00	27%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 920 Southwest	OAK 18:42	LGB 20:11	29%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 3057 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 18:55	LGB 20:20	33%	5%	0.2%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON