Today: WN 3062 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet today WN 3062 OAK 10:00 → ONT 11:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3185 OAK 20:55 → ONT 22:31 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3062 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:00	ONT 11:20	9%	2%	0.2%	96%
WN 4097 Southwest	OAK 12:50	ONT 14:25	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 3239 Southwest	OAK 17:20	ONT 18:56	31%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 3089 Southwest	OAK 18:35	ONT 19:55	33%	8%	0.1%	no record
WN 614 Southwest	OAK 22:30	ONT 23:55	34%	12%	0.5%	no record
WN 3185 Southwest	OAK 20:55	ONT 22:31	39%	13%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON