Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1150 at 22:15, 40%.

Safest bet today WN 1150 OAK 22:15 → PDX 23:55 · 40% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 806 OAK 19:35 → PDX 21:10 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1150 Southwest	OAK 22:15	PDX 23:55	40%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 450 Southwest	OAK 20:56	PDX 22:44	47%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 806 Southwest	OAK 19:35	PDX 21:10	53%	9%	0.1%	no record
AS 2096 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 19:13	PDX 20:50	68%	18%	6.7%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON