Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54%, against 38% on a calm day. Safest: WN 433 at 22:10, 46%.

Safest bet today WN 433 OAK 22:10 → PHX 00:20 · 46% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3070 OAK 19:00 → PHX 21:00 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Weather 54% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 433 Southwest	OAK 22:10	PHX 00:20	46%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 2431 Southwest	OAK 21:12	PHX 23:13	54%	19%	0.2%	no record
WN 4949 Southwest	OAK 18:50	PHX 20:51	56%	19%	0.2%	no record
WN 3070 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 19:00	PHX 21:00	61%	18%	0.2%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON