Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:42 pm at Oakland); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3903 at 17:05, 25%.

Nonstops today


DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 17:05	SLC 19:57	25%	8%	0.2%	92%worse than usual
WN 2796 Southwest	OAK 17:05	SLC 19:50	51%	9%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 20:45 → SLC 23:48AS 669	7h 53m	100%	50%
Southwest Details →	OAK 17:06 → LAS 18:44WN 2374	3h 59m Las Vegas	LAS 22:43 → SLC 01:07 +1WN 1693	7h 01m	100%	48%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3044	3h 10m Denver	DEN 21:30 → SLC 23:15WN 1737	7h 20m	100%	44%
Southwest Details →	OAK 19:00 → PHX 21:00WN 3070	1h 53m Phoenix	PHX 22:53 → SLC 01:35 +1WN 3313	5h 35m	82%	39%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:50 → SAN 16:26AS 3311 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m San Diego	SAN 18:49 → SLC 21:57AS 3017 · flown by SkyWest	6h 07m	95%	29%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:50 → SAN 16:20WN 3076	2h 46m San Diego	SAN 19:06 → SLC 22:07WN 1085	6h 17m	93%	19%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:50 → SAN 16:20WN 3076	55m San Diego	SAN 17:15 → SLC 20:10WN 1938	4h 20m	19%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON