Today: WN 2230 at 12:20 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–36%.

Safest bet today WN 2230 OAK 12:20 → SNA 13:50 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 393 OAK 18:55 → SNA 20:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2230 Southwest	OAK 12:20	SNA 13:50	21%	4%	0.3%	no record
WN 3210 Southwest	OAK 12:47	SNA 14:24	21%	4%	0.3%	no record
WN 4953 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:40	SNA 22:15	23%	3%	0.2%	79%
WN 3211 Southwest	OAK 20:57	SNA 22:34	23%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 3087 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 15:05	SNA 16:35	31%	7%	0.3%	76%
WN 2754 Southwest	OAK 17:40	SNA 19:10	31%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 3209 Southwest	OAK 17:17	SNA 18:54	33%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 3178 Southwest	OAK 18:47	SNA 20:19	35%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 393 Southwest	OAK 18:55	SNA 20:25	36%	6%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON