Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:34 pm at Oklahoma City); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: one nonstop, UA 5531 at 13:43, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 5531 OKC 13:43 → IAH 15:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 5531 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:43	IAH 15:25	26%	9%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
UA 6253 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 17:05	IAH 18:53	16%	5%	0.0%	84%
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 14:33	IAH 16:10	26%	11%	0.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON