Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:13 pm at Oklahoma City); 14 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 6274 at 19:30, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 6274 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 19:30	ORD 22:00	24%	8%	0.4%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	OKC 19:15 → DFW 20:25AA 3729 · flown by Envoy	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193	5h 35m	78%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OKC 19:15 → DFW 20:25AA 3729 · flown by Envoy	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:32 → ORD 23:50AA 1620	4h 35m	58%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON