Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:22 pm at Omaha); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1658 at 17:30, 37%.

Nonstops today


WN 1658 Southwest	OMA 17:30	HOU 19:50	37%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OMA 16:30 → MDW 17:55WN 4094	3h 26m Chicago	MDW 21:21 → HOU 00:06 +1WN 4058	7h 36m	100%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OMA 16:30 → MDW 17:55WN 4094	51m Chicago	MDW 18:46 → HOU 21:32WN 2891	5h 02m	55%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON